Return for refund rate will be greater than 50% 🤭
Apple is planning to produce between 60,000 and 80,000 Vision Pro units for the February 2 launch of the device, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. With the small size of the shipment, Kuo believes that the Vision Pro will "sell out soon after the release."
According to Kuo, though Apple has not yet defined the key applications for the Vision Pro and the price is high, the "groundbreaking technology innovations" and Apple's "base of core fans and heavy users" will exhaust supplies of the device.
Kuo made similar comments earlier this week when he said that demand for the headset would cause it to sell out during pre-orders, and he believes there will be long shipping delays after the initial launch period. Apple is expected to produce fewer than 400,000 Vision Pro headsets in 2024 due to the complexity of manufacturing.
The first run of Vision Pro headsets might sell out quick, but Kuo says that so far, it is unclear if the demand for the Vision Pro will be sustained "after the novelty wears off." Continued sales will depend on "clear and correct" product positioning and key applications from Apple.
Apple plans to release the Vision Pro on Friday, February 2, but pre-orders will be accepted starting on January 19 at 5:00 a.m. Pacific Time. Orders are limited to the United States for the time being, and Apple has not yet provided details on when the headset might be available in other countries.
Customers that are planning to pick up one of the $3,500 Vision Pro devices should plan to pre-order immediately in order to ensure a headset on launch day.
Article Link: Kuo: Apple Will Only Produce Up to 80,000 Vision Pro Headsets for Launch, Sellout Likely
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Kuo: Apple Will Only Produce Up to 80,000 Vision Pro Headsets for Launch, Sellout Likely
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That is simply not true. There is no way that the return rate is anywhere near 50%
It won't be hard to get high demand confused with low supply this year though.
I’ve seen demos of other headsets and it’s awkward. Headsets look strange, and it’s especially weird when you can’t see the demonstrator’s eyes. Plus you aren’t at all experiencing what the demonstrator is experiencing, so the whole demo is a bit pointless. The same info can be communicated in an edited video, probably better. In the end, I think a headset is just something you have to try personally to actually know what it’s like, so that might be why.
Then in 9 months-year they will drop the price by $500-1000 and put in a M3 when they solve all the bottlenecks. This isn’t necessarily unheard of for Apple to steeply discount stuff, and if they figure out a cellular version, that can be further subsidized.
Either way, just in how it looks now I don’t see it being anymore than a niche product (in relation to sales of their other products) for at least 2-3 years, or it could just flop all together, as these things haven’t really taken off yet to begin with. Meta Quest are the best selling and they still sell less than say the Xbox Series systems do in a year.
Alternatively if Apple got direct competition it might actually make the market grow in a way that benefits Apple, but I don’t see any rumors that suggest Google, Samsung, Microsoft etc are even considering anything like Apple is doing.
Either way, just in how it looks now I don’t see it being anymore than a niche product (in relation to sales of their other products) for at least 2-3 years, or it could just flop all together, as these things haven’t really taken off yet to begin with. Meta Quest are the best selling and they still sell less than say the Xbox Series systems do in a year.
Alternatively if Apple got direct competition it might actually make the market grow in a way that benefits Apple, but I don’t see any rumors that suggest Google, Samsung, Microsoft etc are even considering anything like Apple is doing.
I have chosen not to be a Beta tester for this product. I'll jump on board when an actual key benefit is shown, the device becomes much smaller, and that also goes for the price.
So, that's at least one more unit for everyone to purchase 😂
So, that's at least one more unit for everyone to purchase 😂
Personally, I would wait until it ran into the 2nd or 3rd GEN so they could get most of the bugs out.
Anyone planning to buy one, never open it, and sell it in 20 or 30 years? (Not me.) Seriously, this product interests me, but I'll wait to see what it can do, wait until at least the third generation, and wait until the price comes down significantly before I consider buying one.
That makes sense. This is a new complicated product to make. It will take time to build a perfect manufacturing process. If anyone who is interested to get it but not get it. Just be patient, as it will be available eventually. Keep calm, hope to be the lucky one to get one for those who are interested and be happy on whatever outcome. 😊 Not getting it is not the end of the world 😊 Life is too short to be unhappy.
They don't need everyone to own this the first year, they just need to give the impression it's a highly sought after item in limited supply, which it is, but so is the software available for it. Needs time to have its own software economy. As with every other apple product, if successful they will make it available at most price points. But it will probably go no lower than $1,000 unless it's tethered to another device that will drive the price of all that back up to $3k. What I keep asking myself is, what would it need to do for me to actually need this device like I need a computer or a phone?
Wouldn't they have done that already? Seriously asking - strongly considering pre-ordering.
Yes. This. (Also makes them sh***y people - not that they care.)
It seems to have the same 14-day return window as all other Apple products. Nothing indicates otherwise.
Given that situation a potential buyer should wait a bit for the initial demand to subside along with some VisionOS updates.
Aside from the "gotta to have it" its not something that should be snatched as a collectors items when its likely got some apps that need bug fixes because they haven't had a large enough consumer base to identify all the issues on launch.
If it wasn't a major product from Apple, I would be the same way. Until they prove otherwise I don't worry abut that with them. I have owned the first gen iPhone & iPad along with the first gen Intel computer, and first gen Apple silicon computer. None of those products needed a Gen 2 or 3 to make me over the moon happy with the product. They always made it better, sometimes substantially (looking at you iPhone gen 1) but it never detracted from the initial product delivering on what it said it would do.Personally, I would wait until it ran into the 2nd or 3rd GEN so they could get most of the bugs out.
I feel like I see how this could create a future in which mass people use a variation on this technology. Since I got into computers in the 80's I have already tried to experience technology early and track how it adapts over time. It is not just a curiosity but also helps me better understand the technology world as a whole. I see this as a purchase for learning as much as for the personal experience of it.
So I think we might sort of align on our mutual reason for purchasing this for "personal use" meaning not directly for business use (although I will certainly use it for my business activities). What I can hope for is that Apple has the capacity to scale production based on the demand. Meaning I don't think this is a Playstation type scenario. While we might have to wait a little while, maybe even a couple months, I don't think we will have to go through extraordinary measures to get one. We will order one from the MFG and they will deliver one to us based on our position in the ordering queue.
"Scalpers" will essentially only get to resale them to those unwilling to wait a month or two to receive it. Tech journalist, etc... who have to get it quickly to make the click bucks will be among those who would pay extra money to get it quicker.
I could be wrong, but I doubt the issue of obtaining one will be any worse than having to wait the extra month or two.
The problem is that we already know its is being released using a M2 instead of a M3 without AV1 hardware decoding, and Mesh Shading/Ray Tracing capabilities for metal graphics. That might be enough if you prefer to wait for the eventual update that you can get the Gen 1 cheaper.
It's always a balancing line with waiting for them to make the next gen better. I have found that life is too short to always be waiting for something better, especially with purchases that won't last more than 5 years (at most). Maybe that just comes with age, or maybe it is my personality type.The problem is that we already know its is being released using a M2 instead of a M3 without AV1 hardware decoding, and Mesh Shading/Ray Tracing capabilities for metal graphics. That might be enough if you prefer to wait for the eventual update that you can get the Gen 1 cheaper.
I also grant that this could turn out to be the first time I have regret and I might look back and "wished I had waited" but I just don't think I will. I set my expectations fairly good going into things.
I was VERY happy with the iPhone. Was I thrilled when they added 3G, copy/paste, the App Store, and all of the many many features of follow on versions? Yes! But it never once detracted from the original iPhone. It was an experience like nothing I had ever had, and it was utterly and completely worth it for ME to get gen 1. That was even being a person who had used smartphones for years prior (HP, Palm, etc...) so it wasn't like I was blown away by the concept, I was blown away by Apple's step into the market.
I expect the same will be true for this headset. I KNOW the next gen will be better and yet I also believe I will utterly enjoy gen 1 for every minute I have it until it is replaced with gen XYZ.
EDIT: Also, for clarification, it is not that I never wait for another gen of a product. When Apple released their AirPods Max I had just replaced my headphones so I didn't get them. I want them but am totally waiting for Gen 2 to be released before I get them so I get all of the new features in the AirPods Pro 2.
Apple engineer team: No one wants to buy and wear these ugly bulky googles!
Apple marketing team: What if we do it like Rolex does? Rolex watches are very popular worldwide.
Apple engineer team: Wait, do you mean we should produce way less and require people to pay way more?
Apple marketing team: YES, that's exactly what we have planned. We will NOT make more than 80 000.
Apple engineer team: And the price of each one of these ugly bulky googles?
Apple marketing team: Only $3500 each, they cost less than $1 to make. It's just cheap plastic and beta software.
Apple engineer team: But are you sure 80 000 isn't too scarce? Many scalpers will sell them for over $40 000 each...
Apple marketing team: THAT'S OUR END GOAL! IT'S ROLEX STYLE BUT WITH CHEAP MATERIALS AND LOW QUALITY!
Sorry, but just like with those upcoming huge heavy overpriced non-portable iPhones,
I'm 100% certain that Apple Vision Pro will FAIL harder than Oculus Rift.
Apple marketing team: What if we do it like Rolex does? Rolex watches are very popular worldwide.
Apple engineer team: Wait, do you mean we should produce way less and require people to pay way more?
Apple marketing team: YES, that's exactly what we have planned. We will NOT make more than 80 000.
Apple engineer team: And the price of each one of these ugly bulky googles?
Apple marketing team: Only $3500 each, they cost less than $1 to make. It's just cheap plastic and beta software.
Apple engineer team: But are you sure 80 000 isn't too scarce? Many scalpers will sell them for over $40 000 each...
Apple marketing team: THAT'S OUR END GOAL! IT'S ROLEX STYLE BUT WITH CHEAP MATERIALS AND LOW QUALITY!
Sorry, but just like with those upcoming huge heavy overpriced non-portable iPhones,
I'm 100% certain that Apple Vision Pro will FAIL harder than Oculus Rift.
These guys aren’t too smart. They’re going to get stuck trying to resell these devices. People will buy direct from Apple and wait a few weeks or month till theirs ship.
Exactly apparently some people forgot it is its own device capable of doing many standalone things and doesn’t need a Mac
Sony’s entire production line can barely make 1 million of these displays this year, that’s 500,000 units at absolute theoretical maximum.
Supplies will be tight because of reality, not because of artificial hype building.